Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
