Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
